Categories
Antitrust Monopolization

When You Can Win with Advertising, Why Win in Fact?

By the end of last year, 150 million Chinese were using 5G mobile phones with average speeds of 300 megabits a second, while only six million Americans had access to 5G with speeds of 60 megabits a second. America’s 5G service providers have put more focus on advertising their capabilities than on building infrastructure.

Graham Allison and Eric Schmidt, Opinion: China Will Soon Lead the U.S. in Tech, Wall St. J. (Dec. 7, 2021), https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-will-soon-lead-the-us-in-tech-global-leader-semiconductors-5g-wireless-green-energy-11638915759.

Of course, it’s a bit rich to be reading this in the opinion pages of the Journal, which can usually be found defending laissez-faire commercialism.

The American telecom industry is a marketing-driven oligopoly that colludes tacitly to minimize expensive investment in infrastructure and competes instead for market share via worthless, unproductive advertising.

Things would have been different if we had not broken up the old Ma Bell, an engineering-focused organization that took national defense very seriously. As a monopoly, it knew that it had to serve a public purpose or the pitchforks would come out.

Unfortunately, they came out anyway, and antitrust got it, and we are left with the miserable, middling shards that we have today—shards that quickly replaced their engineering culture with a marketing culture, because once they were small they didn’t need to worry about public scrutiny and were free to work exclusively for themselves.

Categories
Miscellany Philoeconomica

An Economics of False Advertising

The first fundamental theorem of welfare economics states conditions under which any price equilibrium with transfers, and in particular any Walrasian equilibrium, is a Pareto optimum. For competitive market economies, it provides a formal and very general confirmation of Adam Smith’s asserted “invisible hand” property of the market. A single, very weak assumption, the local nonsatiation of preferences . . . , is all that is required for the result. Notably, we need not appeal to any convexity assumption whatsoever.

Andreu Mas-Colell et al., Microeconomic Theory 549 (1995).

Wow. So there is a mathematical proof that a “competitive market economy” is always efficient? And all that is required is “[a] single, very weak assumption, the local nonsatiation of preferences,” which translates into the reasonable assumption that people always tend to want more?

If only.

Page forward 70 pages and you encounter the following proviso:

We have, so far, carried out an extensive analysis of equilibrium equations. A characteristic feature that distinguishes economics from other scientific fields is that, for us, the equations of equilibrium constitute the center of our discipline. Other sciences, such as physics or even ecology, put comparatively more emphasis on the determination of dynamic laws of change. In contrast, we have hardly mentioned dynamics. The reason, informally speaking, is that economists are good (or so we hope) at recognizing a state of equilibrium but are poor at predicting precisely how an economy in disequilibrium will evolve. Certainly, there are intuitive dynamic principles: if demand is larger than supply then the price will increase, if price is larger than marginal cost then production will expand, if industry profits are positive and there are no barriers to entry, then new firm will enter, and so on. The difficulty is in translating these informal principles into precise dynamic laws.

Andreu Mas-Colell et al., Microeconomic Theory 620 (1995).

So, that great proof of the efficiency of competitive markets applies only to an economy in “equilibrium,” but economics has no idea how any economy would actually get into equilibrium?

Yes, that is exactly right.

Economics has shown that if buyers and sellers happen to trade at competitive prices in all markets, then the invisible hand will work great. But economics has never been able to show that buyers and sellers will actually bargain their way to competitive prices, even in “competitive market economies,” and even if they are rational profit-maximizers and all that.

Actually, even this proviso is false advertising. Because economics has actually gone and nearly proved the opposite of the proposition that buyers and sellers will always bargain their way to competitive prices: that buyers and sellers in competitive market economies can bargain their way to almost any set of prices—not just competitive prices—and, moreover, that they can bargain prices in circles forever, never achieving any equilibrium set of prices at all, much less the efficient competitive equilibrium set.

The entire project of free market economic theory is, in other words, a failure, and has been since these results appeared in the 1970s.

But you wouldn’t know it from reading the canonical graduate textbook in economics.

Categories
Miscellany

The Peril of Reasonable Inferences

Cortes goes to Mesoamerica, discovers a great empire, and plunders it.

Pizarro goes to South America, discovers a great empire, and plunders it.

Soto, who was with Pizarro in Peru, infers that there must be a great empire to plunder in North America.

He leads a military expedition through Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, and probably Arkansas, finds no great empire to plunder, and dies of fever on the banks of the Mississippi.

Postscript:

The Spanish therefore give up on North America, more or less. No native empire had done the hard work of finding and extracting the continent’s gold for them. And no native empire had done the hard work of marshaling the population into labor units that could be exploited from the top by invaders. It seemed obvious that the hemisphere would be most easily dominated from the places at which native civilization was most advanced.

What saved North Americans from the slavery that befell Mesoamericans and South Americans in the 16th century was that they had not been brought under the centralized control of their own native emperor prior to the European invasions. In the language of James C. Scott, they, unlike their Aztec or Inca neighbors, had not yet been domesticated; they were still free. And that made it impossible for the tiny groups of Spaniards who were carrying out the colonial project to dominate them. For those groups operated by killing the native emperor and substituting themselves at the top of a pre-existing power structure.

Categories
Antitrust Monopolization

To Produce Is to Self-Preference

When you first enter antitrust from the left, you are struck by what appears to be a travesty: that a firm that monopolizes an input can get away with denying that input to downstream competitors.

One thinks to oneself: A monopoly using its power to smash a competitor. How is that not an antitrust violation? An antitrust that fails to prohibit that is a perverse, hollowed-out thing captured by the evil it was constituted to destroy. It is the equivalent of the criminal law not prohibiting killing with malice aforethought. Or the contract law not enforcing promises.

And then you get over it, because actually prohibiting monopolists from denying essential inputs to their competitors makes no sense. (I will explain momentarily.)

The trouble with antitrust today is that those setting the agenda from the left haven’t been in the field long enough to get over it.

And so we are left with the embarrassing legislation against “self-preferencing” that is currently making its way through Congress.

Self-preferencing as a concept is nothing new. It is denial of an essential input to a competitor, something that antitrust has, at various times, called a “refusal to deal,” “denial of an essential facility”, and “monopoly leveraging.”

The tech giant that “self-preferences” owns an essential input—its platform—that it denies to firms that compete with it in selling things on the platform. When Amazon uses its control over its website to prioritize advertisements for Amazon-branded products over those of third-party sellers, it denies full access to the platform input to those third-party-seller competitors.

The reason you cannot ban all denials of access to essential inputs—can’t ban self-preferencing—is that every single product produced and sold in the United States is a vast agglomeration of denials of access to essential inputs, as I point out in a recent paper. To ban all denials of essential inputs is, therefore, to ban production. Full stop.

And so the proposed legislation, which would ban self-preferencing by all firms that have websites with more than 50 million users and a market capitalization in excess of $600 billion, would simply make it illegal to have more than 50 million users and a market capitalization in excess of $600 billion.

The Make or Buy or Market Decision and Input Denial

To understand why all products are agglomerations of denials of essential inputs, it is useful to reflect that a company can go about adding a component to a product in only three possible ways.

The firm can make the product itself. The firm can buy the product. And the firm can let consumers buy the component on their own and attach it themselves. I call this the firm’s “make or buy or market” decision.

The first two options—to make or to buy—are what we conventionally mean when we say that a particular component has been incorporated into a product, and the decision whether to “make or buy” has long been a famous one in law and economics.

What has not been properly understood about these two options is that both always involve the denial of an essential input to competitors. Only the market option is consistent with an antitrust that would prohibit input denial as a blanket matter.

It follows immediately that production—the process of making or buying components and adding them together to generate a product—is impossible without input denial, and that a blanket antitrust ban on input denial would make production impossible.

Consider, for example, the act of adding an eraser tip component to a pencil.

The pencil maker can add this component in three basic ways. First, the pencil maker can manufacture the eraser itself from its basic components. It can buy the chemicals needed to make the eraser dough and then bake the dough in molds to produce the erasers. Of course, the firm would then need to solve the problem of how to acquire the precursors (and the oven, molds, and labor services required to run the operation), so making is in the end always buying. But for purposes of showing that making or buying both involve input denial, that doesn’t matter.

The second way the pencil company can add eraser tips to its pencils would be for it to buy them from an eraser supplier. The company would go out into the eraser tip supply market, find the supplier that offers the best quality at the lowest price, and do a deal.

The third and final way the pencil company can add eraser tips to its pencils—or, better put, can ensure that eraser tips are added to its pencils—would be for the company simply to sell eraser tips to consumers and leave it to consumers to affix them to pencils. The firm might sell eraser-less pencils and also separate eraser caps that consumers can buy and affix to the pencils. Or the firm might put a special ferrule on each of its pencils, perhaps like the one currently included with Palomino Blackwings, that would allow consumers to snap in a properly-shaped eraser that they could purchase separately from the pencil company.

Now, when a firm makes its own eraser tips to place on its pencils, the firm denies access to an input—its pencils—to outside manufacturers of eraser tips who would like their own eraser tips to be included on the firm’s pencils. The firm is in effect competing against those other eraser manufacturers in the market to supply eraser tips for the firm’s pencils, and in choosing to make its own eraser tips, the firm uses its control over pencils—an essential input from the perspective of eraser tip makers who have no way to get their products into the hands of consumers other than attached to pencils—to favor its own homemade product in the eraser tip market relative to those of competitors.

In the language of platforms and self-preferencing, the firm’s pencils are the platform that eraser tip manufacturers need in order to reach consumers, and in choosing to use only its own homemade eraser tips on its pencils, the firm engages in self-preferencing in the eraser tip market.

This is equally true when a firm chooses to buy rather than to make.

When the firm chooses a particular third-party supplier of eraser tips, the firm denies the pencil input to all of the other eraser-tip makers in the market. Once the firm has placed its order, none of the others can reach consumers, at least until the firm places a new order for more eraser tips.

Is Buying Really Input Denial?

There seem at first to be two problems with this argument that buying components is input denial. The first is that the third party supplier whose erasers are not picked by the pencil company at least had a chance to have them picked when the pencil company was still deciding which supplier to use. The supplier presumably lost out in some potentially competitive bidding process, which cannot necessarily be said for the case in which the firm chooses to make erasers in-house.

Be that as it may, it has nothing to do with the basic concept of input denial. A firm is no less forced from a market by denial of an essential input when the input holder thought it would not be profitable to supply the input than when the input holder thought that it would be profitable to supply the input. Indeed, one would expect that the underlying motive for input denial would always be the determination that supplying the input would be less profitable than denying it.

Where Is the Downstream Competition When You Refuse to Buy?

The second problem is that the pencil company does not seem to be competing against the eraser suppliers at all. Unlike in the first case, the pencil company does not actually manufacture any erasers of its own, much less sell them. But if the pencil company is no longer competing with eraser suppliers—just buying from them—then the pencil company cannot be said to be denying essential inputs to competitors.

But that is to miss what really bothers us about input denial. What we dislike about it is not that a product that is manufactured in-house by the denier benefits from the denial, but rather that competitors are harmed and the denier somehow benefits from that harm.

And here we can be sure that the denier does benefit.

For the denier would not choose a particular third-party supplier over others unless the denier stood to benefit from buying from that supplier rather than others. This benefit might come in the form of a discount on the price of erasers. Or it might come in the form of willingness of the supplier more faithfully to execute the instructions of the pencil company with respect to the specifications of the erasers. It might even involve a profit-sharing agreement without the pencil company formally owning the operations of the third-party supplier.

Whatever it may be, the pencil company benefits, and as a result of that benefit it is possible to say that, through the third-party supplier chosen by the pencil company the pencil company does in fact compete in the eraser market, and indeed favors its avatar at the expense of competing eraser suppliers.

In the language of platforms and self preferencing, the firm’s pencils are again the platform, and in choosing to buy from one supplier only—a supplier that necessarily offers some special benefit to the firm otherwise the firm would not buy from it—the platform self-preferences, in the sense that it puts the interests of a favored supplier above those of competitors.

Thus the only two ways in which a firm can incorporate a component into a product—making the component itself or buying the component—are both instances of input denial.

Only Selling Components Directly to Consumers Avoids Input Denial

Only the third means of adding a component to a product—that of selling the component directly to consumers and allowing them to add the component on themselves—manages not to be input denial. Indeed, only this “market” case corresponds to what we mean when we speak of the sort of freely competitive market that antitrust is meant to promote.

Only when the pencil company chooses neither to make the component itself nor purchase it and incorporate it into the pencil, but instead merely makes its pencils available for any consumer to use to affix erasers, does the pencil company make its input—its pencils—freely available for any and all eraser manufacturers to use as a vehicle for delivering their erasers to consumers. For now the question which eraser manufacturer’s erasers should appear on the pencil company’s pencils is no longer answered by the pencil company at all. It is answered only by downstream consumers, who have complete freedom to decide which erasers win out in the eraser market.

That is precisely the world antitrust seeks to create: a world in which firms that control inputs do not decide who wins in the market but rather consumers themselves decide.

But Selling Directly to Consumers Is Not Production

The trouble is: that is not a world that is consistent with the production of products that incorporate multiple components. And because all products incorporate an infinite number of components—it all depends on how you define component; if each molecule is a component of a pencil, then how many components does a pencil have?—it is therefore not consistent with the production of anything at all.

It is a world in which everything is pulled apart and atomized, and the atoms are presented to consumers in a vast menu from which no sane consumer would ever be able to choose because choice would require infinite knowledge regarding how to assemble every single product that we have today from individual atoms on up.

What those setting the antitrust agenda today miss is that banning self-preferencing by, for example, Amazon, does not merely prevent Amazon from favoring its own Amazon-branded products over those of third parties.

It also prevents Amazon from choosing the look and feel of its own website, for Amazon.com is a platform upon which web designers notionally compete in selling web design services for Amazon, and when Amazon designs its own website in-house it necessarily denies access to that input to competitors.

A rule against self-preferencing would require that Amazon enable Amazon users to buy Amazon site design from third party software developers and apply it to the Amazon website, so that every Amazon customer could, in theory, choose his preferred look and feel for the Amazon website.

It doesn’t stop there.

Amazon would also be required to allow customers to choose each and every employee who works at the company, for each of these employees is, in a sense, a labor component of Amazon, and in making hiring decisions on its own, Amazon necessarily prevents other competing workers from using the Amazon platform to supply their labor services to Amazon’s customers.

If this seems absurd, that is because it is.

The market approach to adding components cannot work as a blanket matter, and so antitrust, which is tasked with insisting upon the market approach, cannot be applied in blanket fashion to everything, or even just to everything that has more than 50 million users and $600 billion in assets. It can work only if applied sparingly, severing a component of one product here, a component of another product there, when doing so is thought to be in the best interests of consumers, whose preferences are the ultimate measure of the value of production.

That is why the actual rule antitrust applies, the rule of reason, can be summarized as the rule that input denial is illegal when it fails to improve the product that is ultimately sold to consumers.

Self-preferencing is not, in other words, something that can become the subject of a right, as in: “consumers have a right against self preferencing.” It is instead fundamentally about the best way to organize production in individual markets. The question it poses is whether the input denier can be relied upon to choose the component supplier that will make the product as good as possible for consumers, or whether consumers can instead be relied upon to make that decision.

Because consumers do not want to have to decide how everything they purchase is made, it follows that in almost every case the best answer is to let the input denier make that decision—by denying its input to downstream competitors that the denier believes will do a poor job.

Is Every Input Really Essential?

One might object that while every make-or-buy decision might well involve input denial, it does not involve denial of an essential input—it is not denial of an input by a monopolist of that input, not self-preferencing by a platform monopolist as opposed to any old platform—and so is not the sort of behavior that outrages the antitrust neophyte’s intuition that antitrust should ban input denial.

The pencil company’s effective denial of its pencil to third party eraser tip makers when the company makes its own erasers in-house is not input denial, the argument would go, unless there is only one manufacturer of pencils in the pencil market. Only then would eraser tip makers have no way of getting their wares to consumers other than through the medium of supplying eraser tips to that particular pencil company.

This argument would be good enough were all pencil companies to make the exact same pencil—same size, same wood, same graphite, same barrel color, same name, and so on. Only then would it be a matter of complete indifference to eraser tip makers whether they were to supply tips to our pencil company or another.

But, in fact, save for a few standardized commodities, like Class C crude oil, every company’s product is different from every other, even if only in brand name. The result is that every firm will prefer some inputs to others—find some more profitable to use relative to others—and so input denial will always deprive a firm of something that it cannot get anywhere else. In that sense, all input denials deny essential inputs and every maker of an input monopolizes that input.

Dixon Ticonderoga pencils are different from Palomino Blackwings are different from Faber-Castells, and so putting Acme Eraser Tips on each produces a slightly different finished eraser-tipped pencil, one that may be more or less desirable to consumers and indeed more or less profitable for Acme Eraser Tips. If Acme’s preferred pencil company—let’s say it’s Dixon—stops sourcing from Acme, Acme will end up worse off, even if Acme is able to supply Palomino or Faber-Castell instead. In this sense, Dixon is essential to Acme.

Of course, if there were only Dixon, then the consequences of rejection for Acme would be more severe—not just a hit to the bottom line but perhaps bankruptcy—but is it the magnitude of the harm that bothers us about input denial, or is it that a particular business opportunity has been put off limits?

Product differentiation makes of every input, in other words, a mini monopoly. In the “market definition” analysis that antitrust undertakes in merger and monopolization cases, antitrust has traditionally dealt with this by defining a company as a monopoly only if its products are very different from others’—in the lingo, only if they are not “close substitutes”—choosing an arbitrary cutoff between “too different” and “not different enough”.

But here’s the interesting thing: antitrust does not take this approach in deciding whether an input is essential or not. It does not do this in deciding whether a firm monopolizes an input. Instead, antitrust does this only in considering whether the input denier has a monopoly in the downstream market to which the firm is denying the input (another quirk of antitrust law that will not be considered further here because blanket bans on self-preferencing would not require such a downstream inquiry into monopoly power).

With respect to the question whether an input is monopolized, antitrust instead takes a holistic approach, sometimes asking whether the input is an “essential facility,” for example. Indeed, the proposed self-preferencing legislation eschews the market definition approach, instead prohibiting self-preferencing by those who are a “critical trading partner,” defined to mean those who have “the ability to restrict or impede . . . the access of a business user to a tool or service that it needs to effectively serve its users or customers.”

That’s pretty broad language.

The reason antitrust has always been so vague about what constitutes an essential input is that antitrust recognizes that because every input is unique, every input has a downstream firm for which it is essential.

Must an Input Be Something that You Buy?

One might also object that I have been using “input” in rather a peculiar way here, because I have called the buyer the input supplier whereas an input ought to be something that is sold, not bought. The eraser tip suppliers in my example do not buy the pencil company’s pencils. They sell eraser tips to the pencil company and are paid for doing so. In what sense does a pencil company’s refusal to buy eraser tips from some suppliers count as denial of the pencil input to those suppliers?

The answer is that the proper definition of input—the one that corresponds best to our intuition regarding the injustice of input denial—is not “a thing you buy to use in production” but rather “a thing that is necessary for you to do business.”

This broader definition is necessary to prevent clever changes in the locus of product assembly from undermining the antitrust laws. Consider eraser tips again.

I could equally have told the story of an eraser-tip company that purchases pencils, adds eraser tips to them, and then sells the bundle to consumers. In this case, it would be crystal clear that the pencil is the input and the pencil company’s decision not to supply pencils to the eraser tip company would be input denial. In this telling, the eraser tip company would be injured, just as before, by the fact that the pencil company decided either to make eraser tips in-house or to supply pencils to other eraser tip companies seeking to sell eraser-tipped pencils downstream to consumers.

Why should the pencil company be considered any less of an input denier if it were instead to decide to assemble eraser-tipped pencils itself and to start buying eraser tips from eraser tip manufacturers, though not from the eraser tip manufacturer that it targeted before for input denial? The harm to the eraser tip maker is the same, because either way that company is prevented from getting its eraser tips to consumers on the ends of pencils manufactured by that pencil company.

What matters to antitrust here is not how the eraser-tipped pencil makes it to consumers—whether by being assembled by the pencil company or the eraser tip company—but only that a decision of the pencil company not to do business with a particular eraser tip manufacturer harms the eraser tip manufacturer.

The Inevitability of Power and Suffering in Production and Life

And harm the eraser tip manufacturer it does.

But, as I have explained, that does not matter—indeed, cannot matter—unless it makes for a worse end product served up to consumers, because every act of combining two components to make a new product involves a choice regarding which components to join and which not, and so involves a decision to exclude some component makers from the business and not others. Thus the process of product design, production, and creation is always an exercise of power and the infliction of harm.

This, I think, is why it is so difficult to come to antitrust from the left.

Because progressives are uncomfortable with power and the infliction of harm. Progressives want that to go away. But it turns out that everything—everything—they have is inescapably a product of the exercise of power and the infliction of harm.

You cannot build, you cannot create, you cannot make, without choosing—rejecting some additions and embracing others—and each such decision destroys someone’s business (at least to a small extent) and leaves someone out in the cold, if not physically, then socially and mentally.

It would be nice to be able to avoid this ugly scene in which private firms make private decisions about how to make things, hurting each other along the way, and instead to commit all such decisions to the public—here the market, meaning consumers. This is the market option—to just sell all the components directly to consumers and let them decide which should be used and which not.

But the public has trouble enough selecting a President every four years. It does not want, nor does it have the intellectual capacity, to decide how everything is to be made.

And even then harm and the exercise of power could not be avoided, for the public would still have to decide. Consumers might not like Acme Eraser’s eraser tips and so not buy them to put on their pencils. And so Acme would be denied an essential input—a market—and wither as a result. We might, for the moment, think it more just that the public carry out these executions, as opposed to private firms.

But if you really are concerned about the wielding of power and the infliction of harm, then you should not much care who is doing the wielding and the inflicting, but abjure it all.

Thus input denial forces on the progressive the need to come to terms with the inevitability and pervasiveness of power and suffering in business, and, indeed, once one comes to think of it, in life. For all human behaviors involve choices regarding what to prefer and what to reject, with whom to spend time and with whom not, and so all involve input denial and the infliction of pain to a greater or lesser degree.

The really important question then appears to be not whether to condemn power and suffering but rather how to regulate their deployment and infliction. The question is: who should have the power and who should suffer?

In antitrust, the answer the law currently gives is that firms that make inferior products should suffer, and private firms should decide what combinations of components (i.e., what products) are inferior and what not, except in a relatively small set of cases in which consumers, despite their limited cognitive bandwidth, would do a better job of designing their products.

That, it seems to me, is the right approach, and one that leaves progressives plenty of scope to do good by taking authority from firms and giving it to consumers in cases in which firms produce junk.

Categories
Antitrust Inframarginalism Monopolization Regulation

Competition Trumps Information

Scholarly interest in personalized pricing is growing, and with it confusion about what, exactly, empowers a firm to personalize prices to its customers. You might think that the key is information. So long as you know enough about your customers, you can tailor prices to each. That is, however, incorrect.

No matter how much you happen to know about your customers—indeed, even were you to have a god’s total information awareness regarding each of them—you would not be able to charge personalized prices if you were to operate in a perfectly competitive market. Competition trumps information.

That is because in a perfectly competitive market there are always other sellers available who are willing to charge a price just sufficient to make the marginal buyer in the market willing to stay in the market and make a purchase. If there weren’t, then there would be a chance that the marginal buyer would not be able to find a price that he is willing to pay, and so would not buy, and then the market would no longer be perfectly competitive. For the perfectly competitive market is one in which competition leads to a price at which the marginal buyer and seller are willing to transact.

And so any attempt you may make to personalize a higher price to your inframarginal customers—the ones who are in principle willing to pay a higher price than the marginal buyer—will be met with scorn. Your customers will find those other sellers offering prices keyed to the willingness to pay of the marginal buyer and will purchase from those sellers instead at that marginal-buyer-tailored price.

Thanks to this effect, all buyers will transact at the same, marginal-buyer-tailored price, and so we can conclude that in a perfectly competitive market, price will always be uniform—and uniformly equal to the price at which the marginal buyer and seller transact. (More here.)

It follows that while information is a necessary condition for the personalizing of prices, it is not a sufficient condition.

You also need a departure from perfect competition, which is to say, you need: monopoly. Or at least a hint thereof.

I have argued that personalized pricing is one way to break the iron link between redistribution and inefficiency. When you personalize prices, you can personalize one price to the marginal buyer, ensuring that he stays in the market and the market is efficient, and whatever other prices you wish (within limits) to inframarginal buyers, enabling the redistribution of wealth. But it is important to remember that information on buyers is not alone enough to make this possible. The seller must be a monopolist, too.

Thus the use of personalized pricing as a tool of social justice directly conflicts with the mindless “big is bad” rhetoric that one finds today in certain corners of the progressive movement.

To redistribute wealth at the market level you need to start with big.

And then discipline big’s pricing behavior.

Categories
Inframarginalism Miscellany Monopolization

Notes on the Frysian Theory of the NFT

My colleague Brian Frye has been busy reducing the non-fungible token to theory. Herein some thoughts inspired by Brian’s work.

But first, a definition. An NFT is a ledger entry in a blockchain that (1) indicates a purchase and (2) describes the subject of the purchase, often just with a url link to a picture of the subject. As an approximate matter, when someone posts a digital photo on the Internet and you purchase the NFT to that photo, you obtain a ledger entry in a blockchain that indicates that you made a purchase and describes that purchase using a url link to the photo.

Now for those thoughts.

  1. As a legal matter, the NFT is nothing special. It can be one of two things. It can either be a legally-valid transfer of title to the underlying subject. Or it can be a legally-valid purchase of the service of updating the blockchain ledger to reflect a “purchase” of the underlying subject (without that purchase being legally valid in any way with respect to the underlying subject).

    In other words, the buyer of an NFT clearly pays for the service of having the blockchain ledger updated to reflect a purchase. If the seller’s act of indicating a purchase can be considered a legally-valid expression of intention to transfer title to the subject, then the NFT buyer also gets title to the subject. Otherwise, the NFT buyer just gets a hollow incantation on the blockchain, and nothing more.

    The NFT is a digital version of Berry taking a piece of paper, going up to Apple, and saying to him: “I’ll indicate on this piece of paper that I’ve sold you my Y, if you pay me X”. Apple pays the money. Berry writes on the paper: “sold to you one Y.” Has Apple purchased Berry’s service of writing “sold to you one Y” on the piece of paper or has Apple purchased Y?

    As a general matter, a manifestation of a present intention to transfer title will transfer that title (which is why when someone says, “it’s for you,” you can legally keep the gift). But the law imposes all sorts of qualifications on this rule that are designed to make sure that the intention really was there.

    Does the blockchain-equivalent of shouting “sold” and tendering a url link manifest a present intention to transfer title to the link alone (which is generally not owned by the NFT seller, but rather the platform upon which the NFT is sold, in which case there can be no sale)? If the link leads to a digital photo, does shouting “sold” and tendering the link manifest a present intention to transfer title to the thing depicted in the photo? Or does it manifest a present intention to transfer the seller’s intellectual property rights in the photo itself? If so, which rights? Does the buyer get the right to make a copy of the photo, or does the buyer get the entire copyright?

    Judges will decide these questions.

    If the answer is “no” to all of them, then all that we can say is that purchase of an NFT gets you the service of having a ledger entry placed in the blockchain indicating that you have made a purchase and describing the subject of that purchase. But not title to the subject itself, whatever that may be.

    (Technical note: The foregoing considers the simplest possible form of an NFT transaction, one that is not complicated by any advance written agreement between the parties providing further detail about the character of the transaction. The seller simply makes a promise, expressly or implicitly, to indicate, on a blockchain, sale of some description of a subject if the buyer pays a certain price. This is a unilateral contract offer. The buyer then pays the price and the seller is legally bound to carry out his promise to make the ledger entry in the blockchain. The key question is whether the carrying out of that promise manifests a present intention to transfer title to something, or not.)
  2. If it turns out that the NFT does not transfer title to anything, and instead represents the purchase of the mere service of indicating a sale on a digital ledger, then the NFT is rather interesting as a social matter. Because in that case the market for these things—tens of millions have changed hands for individual NFTs—is a market to buy and sell ledger entries, nothing more. It is for this reason that Brian calls the NFT “the ownership of ownership.”

    In this case, we have in the NFT a further step in the familiar human chain by which a practice that starts out as necessary for survival is progressively abstracted until it persists only as ritual or play. First, men hunted to survive. Then they hunted for fun, though they did not need the meat. Then they played paintball, and took home no meat. First men bought and sold things they needed to survive. Then they bought and sold things that served no practical or spiritual purpose (contemporary art). Then they bought and sold NFTs.

    Nietzsche saw this coming, in a way:

Commerce and Nobility.—Buying and selling is now regarded as something ordinary, like the art of reading and writing; everyone is now trained to it even when he is not a tradesman exercising himself daily in the art; precisely as formerly in the period of uncivilised humanity, everyone was a hunter and exercised himself day by day in the art of hunting. Hunting was then something common: but just as this finally became a privilege of the powerful and noble, and thereby lost the character of the commonplace and the ordinary—by ceasing to be necessary and by becoming an affair of fancy and luxury,—so it might become the same some day with buying and selling. Conditions of society are imaginable in which there will be no selling and buying, and in which the necessity for this art will become quite lost; perhaps it may then happen that individuals who are less subjected to the law of the prevailing condition of things will indulge in buying and selling as a luxury of sentiment. It is then only that commerce would acquire nobility, and the noble would then perhaps occupy themselves just as readily with commerce as they have done hitherto with war and politics . . . .

Friedrich Nietzsche, The Gay Science: With a Prelude in Rhymes and an Appendix of Songs (Walter Kaufmann trans., 2010).

The same information age powers that have given rise to the NFT—making possible a publicly-accessible and (mostly) immutable global ledger system—are also swiftly rendering markets—buying and selling—obsolete.

One day, perhaps sooner than we think, firms and governments will know enough about what we want in order for firms and governments to be able to make allocation decisions for us that are better than we could obtain by bidding for products in markets. And when that happens, we will enthusiastically embrace central planning and forsake markets.

Where today that last seat on the flight is allocated based on ability to pay—a very imperfect method of determining who places the highest value on the seat—tomorrow the airline (or the government agency regulating the airline) will know, based on reams of data about all those who want the seat and that for which they want to use it, that you (yes, you) actually value the seat the most, even though you wouldn’t be able to bid the highest price for it. And so you will get the seat.

In such a world, most of us will cease to buy and sell as a matter of daily life. But perhaps we will continue to play the buying and selling game, just as some of us continue to hunt.

The NFT will be that game.

(Nietzsche didn’t foresee that America would succeed at democratizing and commercializing all things noble, including the hunt, and so he didn’t foresee, either, that the NFT could be more than just the pastime of an aristocracy.)

  1. Brian argues that the NFT could be a solution to the inefficiency of copyright. It is not completely clear to me how this might be so. But there are some possibilities.

    The problem with copyright is that the only efficient way to sell intellectual property is through personalized pricing. That’s because the marginal cost of copying intellectual property is zero—it costs nothing to make a digital copy of an image, for example—and so there are gains from trade to be realized from distributing copies to everyone who places a non-zero value on the work. If you think it’s worth something, you should get access to it. That doesn’t mean that you should not have to pay for the work, or that the work has no cost of production. It means only that those costs are “overhead costs”—they’re the costs of making the work, not of distributing it—and each purchaser should be charged a price no higher than the purchaser’s willingness to pay, for a higher price would prevent the sale and so destroy potential gains from trade.

    Thus the pricing of intellectual property should always be personalized to ensure that it prices no one out of the market. Everyone who cares should be able to buy Steal This Book, but only those who can afford to pay should be charged a price for it, and that price should be no higher, for each, than what he can afford. But those who actually steal it should go to jail, for otherwise there would be no book to steal.

    The problem with copyright is that copyright holders often do not know what their customers are willing to pay and so they do not personalize the prices they charge to licensees. Instead, they impose one-size-fits all prices that prevent some people who place a non-zero value on the work from getting access to it. The price of the paperback is written on the cover. If you can’t afford it, you go home empty handed. Both you and the copyrightholder would be better off if the holder gave you a discount. But the holder thinks (mistakenly) that you’re lying when you claim you can’t afford the official price, so no deal gets done.

    How can NFTs solve this problem?

    Suppose that purchase of an NFT buys only the right to a ledger entry. The buyer does not obtain a general right to the work, or even a license to use a copy of it. If buyers nevertheless continue to love playing the buying and selling game, they may direct sufficient cash to artists to cover the overhead cost of production of their works, and in so doing eliminate the need for copyright protection. That is, if the NFT craze proves long-lived, and spreads enough cash across the creative industries, then we may no longer need to use copyright to fund the arts. Artists could give copies of their works away for free to anyone who wants them, and make a living selling NFTs to fans of the buying game.

    Of course, it might be the case that NFT buyers have less taste than copyright licensees, in which case this new approach to funding would push the arts in unfortunate directions. But the reverse might be equally true, and we might end up with better art. Or, most likely, there would be no change in quality.

    Suppose instead that the purchase of an NFT buys a license to a particular copy of the work. It buys you access to a copy of the Kaufman translation of Nietzsche’s The Gay Science, for example, though not the full copyright to that work. In this case, the NFT format of the sale doesn’t do anything special relative to any other form of digital sale of a copy of a work.

    But the fact that NFT sales are often structured as auctions—buyers bid for the NFT—pushes the pricing of copies in the right direction from the perspective of efficiency. For auction pricing means personalized pricing. If you require no minimum price in your auctions, and keep selling copies ad infinitum, then you will price no buyers out of the market and will end up selling copies at a range of prices personalized to the willingness to pay of buyers.

    Of course, savvy buyers will take advantage of this format to pay you little or nothing (if you know an infinite number of copies are going to be sold, why bid more than zero for any copy?), but we are at least on the right track. (Or not, if you end up getting paid so little that you give up on producing art in future.) The next step would be to use more complex auction structures designed to force buyers to reveal their willingness to pay, or to acquire data on buyers that would enable accurate dictation of personalized prices to them. But none of this, again, requires NFTs. Indeed, one can expect that, regardless whether NFTs persist or not, the information age is going to make it easier for copyright holders to personalize their prices and so much of the inefficiency of copyright will eventually disappear.

    Personalized pricing won’t solve all problems associated with copyright, however, for copyright also creates a distributive problem associated with excessive pricing, and personalized pricing enables owners to extract the maximum possible value from buyers—value that may be far in excess of the cost of producing art. In that case personalized pricing would exacerbate the wealth distributive problem associated with copyright even as it eliminates the efficiency problem. NFTs, in either their fee-for-service guise or their fee-for-license guise can’t solve the distributive problem of copyright, because there’s always a chance that buyers will pay prices for their NFTs that more than cover the cost of producing the arts.

    But that’s a story for another day.
Categories
Miscellany

Libertarianism as Opposition to the Electoral Process

The libertarian says: “when government intervenes in the market, it prevents the people from imposing their preferences on the market. People may claim to hate Facebook, but the fact that they use it belies their words. The people have voted in the market for Facebook, which is why Facebook became so successful. If the government destroys Facebook, it goes against the will of the people.”

The trouble with this line of argument, which the libertarian applies to all government interventions in the market, not just antitrust interventions against Facebook, is that in a democracy the people vote in two ways, not one. They vote in the market. And they vote for their political leaders, who in turn decide whether the government should intervene in the market. So it is not possible for a libertarian in a democracy to say that government intervention in markets goes against the will of the people. For it is the people who will the intervention in markets into existence.

The most that the libertarian can say is that the will of the people as expressed through their purchase decisions is more authentic than the will of the people as expressed through their electoral votes. And so it may be. But I have never heard a libertarian address this question directly, even though it is necessarily the heart of libertarianism, at least in a democracy. Instead, the libertarian tends to rail against government intervention as though every government were a tyranny and all market regulations dictated by some unelected politburo rather than, as happens to be the case in the libertarian ground zero that is the United States, by duly elected representatives of the people.

The libertarian asks, “why should the Federal Trade Commission get to decide whether Facebook is right for you or not?,” as if the Federal Trade Commission were a hereditary aristocracy. If the Federal Trade Commission breaks up Facebook, then it is the people who have broken up Facebook. The natural conclusion to draw is not that the people are oppressed but rather that the people have decided that they no longer wish to have Facebook as an option in their markets.

Why ever would a people decide, electorally, not to have a particular market option? The obvious answer is that people might wish to bind themselves to the mast. It could be the case that people find it easier to make deliberative, non-impulse-prone decisions about which products are good for them in the context of electoral voting rather than market voting through their purchase decisions. They think more carefully about what they really want when they vote for President than when they are logging in to Facebook.

Regulation in a democracy is, then, nothing more than the deliberative faculties restraining the impulsive faculties of the brain. It has nothing at all to do with tyranny, domination, un-freedom, or control, except insofar as it represents self-control.

If this is right, then why do libertarians nevertheless object to regulation? It could be that they reject the notion that the electoral process is more deliberative than the market process. Perhaps they believe the reverse: we choose more deliberatively in the market than in the electoral process. Or perhaps they believe that impulsive decisions better reveal our true preferences than do deliberative decisions, in which case the market, to the extent that it encourages impulsive decisionmaking, does a better job than politics at revealing our true preferences.

Or, more likely—because this libertarians do talk about—they believe that the layers of intermediation associated with representative government—the politicians and bureaucrats who stand between the electoral voter and the regulation—are not in fact responsive to voters, or only minimally so, and so the regulations government imposes reflect neither the deliberative preferences of voters nor their impulsive preferences, or reflect them only very weakly.

Whatever the reason, the libertarian position must be that the electoral process is a flawed voting system relative to the voting system that is the market.

Categories
Civilization Miscellany World

The Danger of Climate Certainty

We know from the study of social insurance that uncertainty—regarding whom a misfortune will strike—is a great spur to social behavior. It is the veil of ignorance that makes the healthy pay for the medical care of the sick. It is only because the healthy pay their premiums before they learn, at the end of life, that they did not in fact need to pay them, that the sick can afford medical care.

By the same token, the great spur to collective global action against climate change, such as it exists (and admittedly it does not much), is the fact that no country knows yet quite what the effects of climate change will be. As with all complex changes, that of climate will make winners as well as losers, at least in the medium term. Some countries will be submerged. Otherwise will thaw, or be the beneficiaries of rains diverted by changing weather patterns. But because no country knows yet into which category it will fall, each has some incentive to pay to insure against climate change, just as each of us has an incentive to pay a heath insurance premium.

But as climate change advances, and the consequences for individual countries become easier to predict, that incentive will lessen, at least for the countries that stand to benefit. If it becomes clear, for example, that the zone of arable land will shift northward into Canada and Siberia, then Canada and Russia—or the countries in the best position to invade or dominate them—may find it more expedient to promote climate change than to ward it off, just as improvements in the use of genetics to predict health outcomes may one day give some people the confidence not to buy health insurance.

Indeed, one can imagine not only Canada and Russia pulling for climate change if the arable zone ends up moving northward, but also China, which teems on Siberia’s southern border and has a historical claim to the territory. As soon as it were to become clear that Siberia would replace America as breadbasket to the world, China would have an immense prize right on her doorstep. It would be in her interest to carry climate change forward, at least long enough to cement her new strategic advantage.

Categories
Civilization Despair Meta Miscellany

The Possibilities of Hierarchy

We can represent the possibilities of hierarchy with a matrix of hierarchy. It looks like this:

Person B
Believes himself to be inferiorBelieves himself to be superior
Person ABelieves himself to be inferiorClassical Equality (each looks up to the other)Domination
Believes himself to be superiorDominationConflict (each believes himself to be better than the other)
The matrix of hierarchy.

In a world of hierarchy, each of us believes himself either to be better or worse than others, but never equal. When two people meet, there are therefore four possible relationships that can appear between them.

Two are relationships of domination, which occur when one believes himself to be better than the other and the other agrees.

One is a relationship of conflict, which occurs when each believes himself to be better than the other.

And the third is a relationship of equality, which occurs when each believes himself to be worse than the other, with the result that each seeks to follow the other and do for the other. I call this a relationship of “classical” equality because it is the only equality known before the modern period.

The matrix of hierarchy explains why domination is so often associated with hierarchical thinking: it is the most common outcome (i.e., you find it in two of the four boxes in the matrix).

It also explains why conflict is often associated with hierarchical thinking.

Finally, the matrix of hierarchy explains why romantic love so flourished in the premodern world, for is romantic love not an example of a relationship characterized by mutual feelings of admiration—of looking up at the beloved?

The new conception of equality that came into being with the modern world can be represented by a box of equality:

Person B
Believes himself to be no better or worse
Person A Believes himself to be no better or worse Modern Equality
The box of equality.

The modern conception of equality eliminates domination and conflict. It also eliminates that sweetest of all relationships, that of mutual admiration, which I have called classical equality. It eliminates love.

Question: Can we have classical equality without domination or conflict? Can we have a world in which each man looks up to every other?

That would be the best of all possible worlds.

It might require only that we change the way we look at others.

Or it might require that we change ourselves.

Categories
Civilization Meta Miscellany

Two Equalities

There is the equality in which one man looks up to another, and the other looks up to him. The first is convinced that he is inferior to the other. And the second is convinced that he is inferior to the first. The first therefore wishes to follow the second. And for the same reason the second wishes to follow the first. In the end, they follow each other. This is an equality bred of hierarchy and hierarchical thinking, of domination and obedience, of excellence and humility, of admiration and connection.

There is another kind of equality in which one man looks straight across at another and says to himself: “he is no better or worse than I.” And the other man looks at the first and says: “he is no better or worse than I.” This is an equality of isolation, mediocrity, resentment, orgeuil.

Give me the first equality. Never the second.